Nigeria’s Economy Growth Could Fall To 4.8% – IMF

The International Monetary Fund (IMF), predicted that Nigeria’s economy would grow by a slower 4.8 per cent this year, from 6.3 per cent in 2014. 

IMF_4

According to the IMF’s World Economic Outlook , this will improve to 5.0 percent in 2016, which is still behind the 2103 rate of 5.4 per cent.

However, despite the drop, the country’s economy’s projected growth rate is still soaring faster than its fellow African nation, especially South Africa, expected to grow at just 2.0 percent, improving from the 1.5 per cent in 2014.

The report says that for Sub-Saharan Africa, which recorded 5.2 percent growth in 2013 and 4.5 percent in 2014, the projection for 2015 is 5.0 percent, before slowing down to 4.5 percent in 2016.

Global growth however remains moderate, with uneven prospects across the main countries and regions. It is projected to be 3.5 percent in 2015, in line with forecasts in the January 2015 World Economic Outlook.

Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, while growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to be lower, primarily reflecting weaker prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil-exporting countries.

According to the IMF, a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook, including medium and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country or region-specific factors.

In emerging markets, negative growth surprises for the past four years have led to diminished expectations regarding medium-term growth prospects.

In advanced economies, prospects for potential output are clouded by aging populations, weak investment and lackluster total factor productivity growth, as well as expectations of lower potential growth weaken investment today.

Lower oil prices, which reflect to a significant extent supply factors, provide a boost to growth globally and in many oil importers but will weigh on activity in oil exporters.

Exchange rates across major currencies have changed substantially in recent months, reflecting variations in country growth rates, monetary policies, and the lower price of oil. By redistributing demand toward countries with more difficult macroeconomic conditions and less policy space, these changes could be beneficial to the global outlook.