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US never predicted that Nigeria will break up by 2015 —Investigations



An extensive investigation by ThisDay news has revealed that the alleged prediction by the United States that Nigeria would break up in 2015 is totally false.

The “prediction” was purely scenario painting by individual analysts ‘without the endorsement of the American government’.

The document predicting Nigeria’s impending doom is a 17-page discussion paper entitled: “Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future”, a copy of which ThisDay News possesses.

Government officials in Nigeria even criticized the United States for allegedly predicting Nigeria’s breakup come 2015.

Not even the intervention, last February, by the US Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr. Terence McCauley, that it was not the US government that made that projection, could put to rest the prevailing view that US had predicted that Nigeria would be a failed state in 2015.

According to ThisDay news, the document was released in March 2005 after a one-day conference convened by National Intelligence Council (NIC) two months earlier, where top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa discussed likely trends in the region over the next 15 years.

“Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future” report was based on a lot of assumptions contrary to the popular opinion in Nigeria.

Nigeria’s breakup was predicated on the possibility of a coup by junior military officers – clearly an individual opinion held by one of the discussants.

It says:  “Other potential developments might accelerate decline in Africa and reduce even our limited optimism. The most important would be the outright collapse of Nigeria.

“While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja.

“The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilise the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner.”

The report then warned on the risk to West Africa if Nigeria were to fail as a state, without actually saying the country was going to fail.

It says: “If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region.

“Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilising entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilised.

“Further, a failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years if ever and not without massive international assistance.”

ThisDay also came across other reports commissioned by the NIC prior to and after the 2005 conference report on Africa’s future view with Nigeria as a key country in the region beyond 2015.

In the unclassified report by the NIC titled, “Global Trend 2015: A Dialogue about the Future with Non-governmental Experts”, which was released in December 2000, it was recorded that:

“South Africa and Nigeria, the continent’s largest economies, will remain the dominant powers in the region through 2015.

“But their ability to function as economic locomotives and stabilisers in their regions will be constrained by large unmet domestic demands for resources to stimulate employment, growth, and social services, including dealing with AIDS.”

Putting both reports in context, the Global Trend 2015, which did not carry NIC’s disclaimer, is the product of its close collaboration with US government specialists and a wide range of experts outside government over a period of 15 months.

There is also an unclassified report titled, “Global Trend 2010”, released in November 1997, which projected then that, “Nigeria’s economic mismanagement, corruption, and political instability will not be resolved over the next 15 years.”

However, one notable aspect of the 2005 conference report on Africa is that of terrorism.  Its reads:

“Given that significant portions of Africa, those areas outside the nations’ capitals, will essentially be ungoverned, there will be many opportunities for terrorist groups that threaten the West to seek haven across the continent.

“…those terrorists groups seeking sanctuary for their fugitive principals or who want to hide dangerous weapons may find the distant regions of some African countries inviting precisely because they are unlikely to be interrupted by government.

“Indeed, an overwhelming majority of terrorism in Africa will be caused by indigenous groups waging war against their own or neighbouring governments or against other population groups, defined by religion or ethnicity.”

There couldn’t have been a more definite projection of the current security challenges confronting Nigeria and some African countries.

Point of note is that some of the media reports on the issue at the time – most of which were short in details – and subsequent media reports, erroneously attributed it to the United States Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).


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  1. Id Amogu

    May 15, 2012 at 10:13 pm

    Never mind that the prediction is not an official US government document, Nigeria is lucky to receive the revelation and can now pray and do something about it. How? Start from the top, to respect ourselves and our leaders, treat them with honour and carefully criticise their wrongful acts without totally writing them off. EFCC is good, but is it really? Build a remediation process for recovering any wealth obtained illegally or by deception, and put culprits on change programmes rather than dismiss them or jail them, as their experience in the programme will help lower level management. This and many other alternative sanitisation programmes have been designed by highly skilled Nigerian professionals in the UK, specifically to help build Nigeria’s future.

  2. Agbelayi

    May 16, 2012 at 1:10 pm

    Instead of us to seek their help if really don’t want to break as the’ve predicted, we are challenging them. My question is are they lying, are we not preparing to break? When their is not equality in power sharing, we must in to war before our region become president. All this is what the us are seeing and our leathers are pretending.

  3. franklin

    July 5, 2012 at 8:42 pm

    u.s prediction is fake,so what?? we dnt need anybdy to tell us what is going to happen to nigeria in the future,nigeria’s seperation is crystal long as some useless set of ppl will continue to threaten the peace and unity of this country,just because dey couldnt achieve their selfish interest,nigerians should forget about the unity,no ethnic group should claim superiority over the others.For the country to be united,nigerians must understand this..

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Metro News

Femi Otedola Reacts To Lekki Tollgate Shooting



Femi Otedola Finally Reacts To Lekki Tollgate Shooting
Femi Otedola

Femi Otedola

Nigerian businessman, Femi Otedola has finally reacted to the shooting that took place at Lekki Tollgate, Lagos on Tuesday.

Information Nigeria recalls men dressed in military wears opened fire on unarmed #EndSARS protesters, who convened at the area.

Otedola took to his Instagram page on Sunday to commiserate with the families of those who lost their lives in the unfortunate incident.

Sharing a photo of the Nigerian flag, he wrote;

“The horrors that have been unfolding in our country have left me filled with sadness. I deeply commiserate with those who have lost their loved ones and as a father, I share the sentiment of my three daughters who protested in Lagos and London. As a young boy of 16, I participated in the ‘Ali Must Go Protest’ of 1978, so I understand the determination of our youths who rightly want our country to be better. We must all do our part to make Nigeria great! I will continue to do my own quota in providing for those who are most in need of support in our country in these tough times .…F.Ote💲”

Read Also: Femi Otedola Spotted Dancing With His Children (Video)

See his post below:

Otedola’s post

Otedola’s post

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Metro News

“Oke Wasn’t Killed By Stray Bullet, He Was Stabbed By Thugs” – Brother Claims



“Oke Wasn’t Killed By Stray Bullet, He Was Stabbed By Thugs” - Brother Claims


Information Nigeria recalls a graphics designer identified as Oke, was killed hours after tweeting “Nigeria will not kill me” on Wednesday.

It was reported that the young man had passed away after he was hit by a stray bullet.

The deceased’s younger brother, Daniel has come out to clear the air regarding the circumstances leading to his death.

Daniel revealed his brother was stabbed on the neck by thugs who infiltrated and ransacked their home.

In his words;

Good day, My name is Obi-Enadhuze Daniel younger brother of the now deceased Okechukwu Obi-Enadhuze @O_Okee . I, my brother and mother lived at makinde police barracks, mafoluku, Oshodi, Lagos State.

Today at about 11 o’clock in the morning the police station at makinde was attacked by thugs who wanted to destroy the station, I my mom and brother were holed up in our house.

 The attack went on for hours before the thugs eventually breached the police and proceeded to set the station on fire, after accomplishing this they set their sights to the barracks and began the assault, they proceeded to destroy every car in the barracks, my mom’s 2 cars where destroyed and set on fire and then they infiltrated our house by breaking the door they then proceeded to ransack the house and carted away with everything we own. 

 my brother on trying to get them to take everything but spare us was pushed to my mom’s room and stabbed on the neck, the attacker then proceeded to attack me but missed my neck but got my chin instead, after this my mom and I carried my brothers body to the entrance of the station soliciting for help from the thugs still ravaging the barracks, we were finally able to put him in a wheelbarrow and took him to a hospital where he was rejected because “he was already dead” unfazed we moved him to another hospital where he met the same treatment this was where he bled his last drops of blood and died, his body has now been moved to a morgue

we have lost every single thing we own, as our house was completely ransacked and set on fire the only thing left is my brothers phone and at about 8 o’clock this evening the barracks was still on fire but Okechukwu has paid with the ultimate price

I and my mother are homeless with nothing now but we’re safe for now, we thank everyone that has been able to reach out to us, and were able to share consoling words with us in these trying times, God bless you

While we were holed up in the house the three of us said these words together and we say it again ” THREE OF US ARE HERE, THREE OF US ARE TOGETHER, THREE OF US ARE SAFE”

Let it be known that my brother @O_Okee  was NOT killed by a police bullet but died a hero protecting my mother and I.

If you see this please retweet, let the world know how Okechukwu died. He was NOT killed by a police bullet but thugs in his home!”

Read Also: RIP Oke: Barely 3hours After Tweeting “Nigeria Will Not End Me” #EndSARS Protester Dies From Gunshot

See his post below:

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Metro News

Youths Burn Down Sanwo-Olu’s Mother’s House In Lagos (VIDEO)



Youths Burn Down Gov Sanwo-Olu’s Mother’s House In Lagos (VIDEO)

Youths Burn Down Gov Sanwo-Olu’s Mother’s House In Lagos (VIDEO)Lagos youths have set the family house of Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu on fire.

This was after the Governor said that no nobody was killed during the shooting by soldiers at Lekki Toll Gate on Tuesday night.

Sanwo-Olu had debunked claims that the soldiers opened fire and killed some peaceful protesters.

Recall that men of the Nigerian Army reportedly opened fire on protesters following the declaration of 24 hours curfew by the Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwolu.

Bullets fired by security operatives hit some persons and at least two persons have been confirmed killed by the police and many injured

Voices in viral footage blamed the shootings on soldiers.

However, the angry youth attacked several important places such as Nigeria Port Authority, TVC News, and the family house of the Governor where his mother resides.

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